The idea behind the usage of this system is a theory from 1989 year according to which the draw is the hardest to be predicted by bookies final outcome in a football match. Hence, this bookie’s weakness can and should be used by punters.
By taking a close look at the data from the English Premium League for the 2016/2017 season we can see that 23% of the matches ended with parity. As a matter of fact, this isn’t such a big deal number as the first 44 draws in the chart for the percentage calculation have more than 30% draws in their matches during the entire campaign. However, even those draws in the Premium English League are ok for the system.
These 23% means that we are going to win about 1 bet per each 4 matches. And this means that the winning bets will be usually the fourth number in the Fibonacci raw – 3 – and up to now we will have been placed 7 EUR. (The winning bet plus the three lost bets up to now – 1 EUR, 1 EUR and 2 EUR). Having in mind that the average odd for a draw per season is 4.20 we can calculate that the average win would be about 12.60 EUR (3 EUR X 4.20 odd) which is equal to the net profit of 5.60 EUR after deducting the losses.
With 380 matches in the Premium League per season it means that theoretically the win will be about 1780 EUR – and this is the profit in case of a primary bet of 1 EUR only!
The weak points in Fibonacci system
There is a big bunch of practical limits that prevents Fibonacci to be a 100% money maker. As a start, a lot of matches from the league take place at the same time, which means that there is no way for you to get information whether one of them will end up with a draw, or no in order to get aware what number of the Italian mathematician’s raw to use for the next one. Instead, it is often for the punters to choose to use the strategy over the matches of one single team.
In the last case, though, the long course with no draw of a team can lead to big holes in the punter’s financial balance. The longest course without the appearance of the “X” mark in English Premium League is for Manchester United during 2008/09 season when the Red devils had had 20 matches with no parity till the draw came with Arsenal.
As Fibonacci’s raw increases exponentially you should have bet 10 946 EUR for the last match of this course. The interesting thing here is that the odd for a draw in this match was 4.10 EUR and it would have brought you 44 878 EUR profit or 16 2000 EUR net profit.
Like many other similar systems, the one with Fibonacci numbers would have perfectly worked only an unlimited bankroll and unlimited limits. The system just cannot come with a 100% guarantee for a success, but despite all it is one of the most preferred one among punters because of the bigger safety it comes with – in comparison to Martingale system for example – as well as with the interesting scheme.